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Post by Erniewan on Sept 4, 2012 17:19:55 GMT -6
Squeege was the best at what he did, and he knew it. He worked late into the night on a new device that he hoped would help them get to the bottom of this invader mess. As he was working however, he heard a creaking outside the door in the hall. Prepared for such a moment, he quickly donned his power suit, one of his prized possessions. He turned and faced the door in case someone walked in, ready to fire upon any hostile intruders. But after a few minutes, no one came in. Confused, but not fazed, he continued to work on his latest invention. But all of a sudden, his suit began to malfunction! The helmet shut tight and blocked off all the airflow and dampened any sound; the arms and legged locked and restricted any movement; the boosters would not activate and instead redirected any energy to internal heating. Squeege pushed and rolled his weight around, but he was unable to escape. He slowly lost consciousness as the suit that had once granted him superhero powers now became his death trap. Squeege was Iron Man, Inventor, TownThe other superheroes found Squeege's body lying on the floor of his room facing the ceiling. The suit appeared to have shut down after overheating, and when they finally got it open, they found Squeege had been long dead. It came as a shock to them all, one of the founding members of the Avengers was now dead, leaving them to fend for themselves against the threat. But they honored him with a few eulogies, and soon were ready to take on the attackers. They had lost a great leader, but they were more than capable of taking up the mantle. They would avenge Iron Man's death. It is now Day 4.With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 4 ends on Tuesday, September 11th @ 6:30 pm (CST).Roster:1. Kat 4. malick 6. vgaddict 8. Caleton 9. Hellfire 10. The Missing Link 11. robbiecon 12. impereld 13. blrasmu 14. Kirawillwin 15. GameGuy Dead/Stumped:5. Miracle Fassad - The Hulk, % Armor/Brock Sampson, Town - Lynched D23. Linnet - Skrull, Doppelganger, Mafia - Killed N27. monstrman - POWERLESS - Stumped N22. NPR - Doctor Doom, Inventor/Stump SK, Independent - Lynched D316. Squeege - Iron Man, Inventor, Town - Killed N3Day 1/The RulesDay 2Day 3
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Post by malick2037 on Sept 4, 2012 17:24:31 GMT -6
Sadly I do not know what I did tonight. I targeted blrasmu.
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Post by NPR on Sept 4, 2012 17:52:41 GMT -6
Once again NPR fucks himself over by targeting the wrong person -_-
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Post by Erniewan on Sept 4, 2012 18:37:13 GMT -6
An item was found leaned against the wall. To take the item, post Accept Item.
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Post by Nyan Kat on Sept 4, 2012 18:38:49 GMT -6
Accept item
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Post by Nyan Kat on Sept 4, 2012 18:59:42 GMT -6
Like I said in the absence thread, I may need to extend my v/la to Friday. I've got a loooooot of town reads this game, and a very low number of scum reads. Argh. But I'll be here and contributing when I can.
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Squeege
Green Belt
I bet you can't beat me.[A1i:2][ss:Standard]
Posts: 599
Likes: 3
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Post by Squeege on Sept 4, 2012 20:42:18 GMT -6
Bah bah bah /sheep
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Post by monstrman on Sept 4, 2012 21:30:43 GMT -6
I'm gonna be honest, I really thought NPR was scum and a bunch of my reads were based on him flipping that way. Him being SK means a re-read I guess.
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Post by Caleton on Sept 4, 2012 22:21:34 GMT -6
Squeege! D: I thought you were town. But I didn't want to find out this way! ;__; Not that I'm glad that a townie died, but its kinda nice that this night actually made predictable sense. -Night 1, I assume the mafia either targeted nyan kat, who was an armor. Or monstrman who was busdrove with MF (a % armor) which is why there was no kill. -Night 2, npr stumped monstrman. And I assume the mafia targetted Squeege, who was busdrove with Linnet, so they ended up killing their own teammate. -And now night 3, they came back to finish what they had started killing Squeege. It would seem the mafia really wanted Squeege dead. My guess is the same reason I thought he was town. All his posts were rational and intelligent. He was just a smart player. I'll have to go back and reevaluate all his posts now knowing he's town, though. Now in terms of NPR. Him being an independent actually made total sense. Because his posts in earlier game hadn't made me think mafia really. The only thing not town-y was the whole stumping situation. However, the thing that had me most confused was that several of my scum suspects had voted npr. I didn't get that, because npr's lynch escalated pretty quickly, so if the mafiats hadn't jumped on, he probably wouldn't have been lynched. But now that we know npr was in fact an independent, it makes sense because the mafia thought they were just lynching a townie. Or maybe they knew he was indie somehow and that's why they were comfortable getting him...? But, anyways. the fact that npr wasn't mafia just reinforces my suspicions of these bandwagoners. And two inventors! Also, I'm just gonna jump right of the bat and Vote: blrasmu[/color] for the several reasons I had given before. I don't want the day to start really slow like it did the last two days.
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Sept 4, 2012 22:36:18 GMT -6
Alright.
So... NPR wasn’t Mafia, but honestly, that flip of his in truth jived very well with my conclusions. I hadn’t considered the thought that NPR could be independent instead of Mafia (and that’s something I really should have), but at the end of the day, that does jive with my conclusions that NPR was anti-Town. And how.
Though man, I don’t envy NPR’s role. Being an SK indy without the ability to truly eliminate people from the game? That’s a harsh role. On the plus side, that does mean one less “kill” per night... so I’m happy about that.
So let me go back over my analysis from yesterday.
My theorization from yesterday posited two different theses. First, I said that Malick and NPR were not on the same anti-Town team together; unfortunately, on its own, NPR flipping anti-Town independent doesn’t really help solidify my opinions on Malick. Had NPR been Mafia, it would have ensured that Malick wouldn’t be Mafia either. Such as it is, Malick is either Townie... or he’s part of the Mafia and somehow knew that NPR was Indy. The latter isn’t impossible, though the former solution is much simpler. For now, I can’t help but lean on the fact that Malick is more likely to be Townie than Mafia, though I can’t really clear him just yet.
As for Linnet, who was the other subject of my search, I again theorized about her vis-à-vis NPR. The statement I made specifically was that either NPR’s “bodyguard” role on N2 failed, Linnet was the one who stumped Monstrman, or NPR was lying. Well, we all know which one of those three is totally legit in this case. NPR lied and, as a result, NPR didn’t kill Linnet but instead stumped Monstrman. However, this still leaves Linnet’s death unexplained. However, it’s most likely at this point that Linnet was the target of the Mafia kill. Therefore, it leads me to believe that, most likely, she wasn’t Mafia. And, as I mentioned, the flavor seems to support that.
(Of course, that would mean I was wrong about her at the beginning. So it goes, I suppose.)
So with that, I need to dig through the other people’s post and see where we can go from here. Especially with Squeege. I didn’t have him in my Townie list, so I’m slightly surprised to see the Townie flip.
That said, we already have had two Inventor flips. That’s also surprising. >_>
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vgaddict
Yellow Belt
[ss:Standard]
Posts: 214
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Post by vgaddict on Sept 5, 2012 9:53:03 GMT -6
Yeah, isn't that kind of broken to have TWO Inventors?
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blrasmu
Orange Belt
DOUBLE STAR POWER![A1i:5][ss:Starmen]
Posts: 389
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Post by blrasmu on Sept 5, 2012 13:12:29 GMT -6
Argh, this is frustrating. I keep looking at the list, trying to build some sort of case, but I got nothing right now. My only theory is that since we haven't lynched a mafia yet that the mafia has been in control of the lynches so far.
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Post by Hellfire on Sept 5, 2012 15:55:29 GMT -6
My only theory is that since we haven't lynched a mafia yet that the mafia has been in control of the lynches so far. There have only been two lynches out of which one was an independent. So its hard to go off that right now. That being said though, the mafia would have known that NPR was non-mafia and therefore would treat him the same way they would a townie in trying to get him lynched. I'm going to try to go through the past 2 days soon and see what I can find.
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Post by Nyan Kat on Sept 5, 2012 20:44:33 GMT -6
TML- monstrman claimed to have bus driven Linnet and Squeege. Therefore, Squeege was probably the mafia's target.
I'll have something to say in a minute. At least, I hope so.
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Post by Nyan Kat on Sept 5, 2012 20:56:46 GMT -6
EBWOP okay so the path I was about to go on I can't actually go on yet. SO HOLD YOUR HORSES
I need to reread over the next couple days...so I'll be doing that....mrrrrrrr
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Post by Caleton on Sept 5, 2012 21:56:11 GMT -6
this day is way too inactive. Cmon people, its day 4. We have a lot to work with.
TML, I agree with you that Linnet was most definitely not actually the doppelganger for this reason that I just noticed. Although I think you already saw this and didn't mention it. (Unless I missed it).
"Although her face was now different, the identification in the body's pocket confirmed that it was indeed Linnet." I cannot think of a single thing that could mean other than her not really being the doppelganger. However, this does not say as to whether or not she actually was mafia.
Since I'm pretty sure monstrman isn't messing with us about his actions for various reasons, I see two possibilities:
1. The mafioso doppelganger targets Squeege, is then busdrove, and kills the townie Linnet instead. As part of the doppelganger's ability, Linnet dies, her actual role and alignment are hidden, and she is revealed as a mafia doppelganger, and the real doppelganger takes Linnet's ability.
2. The mafioso doppelganger targets Squeege, is then busdrove, and kills the mafioso Linnet instead. As part of the doppelganger's ability, Linnet dies, her actual role (and perhaps alignment but it wouldn't matter since she already is mafia) is revealed as a mafia doppelganger, and the real doppelganger takes Linnet's ability.
Personally I think it was #2 because her posts seemed scummy to me. But an important piece of info to know would be whether or not the alignment is changed. Nyan Kat, I do believe you said you are familiar with the role, so do you know?)
WIth an initial game of 16, I think we had 10 townies, 5 mafia, and 1 independent. We have 11 alive. Depending on the state of linnet, we would either have 5 or 4 mafia left. If we have 5, a mislynch today would be pretty much an instant loss. So lets not do that... But it feels like it shouldn't be that hard, cuz we basically have like a 50/50 chance of getting it right, and we wouldn't be taking a stab in the dark. Since its getting nearer late game maybe we should start saying who we all think is mafia or at least who we think is town. And work from there? I mean i have a pretty confident idea of at least half of the remaining players. im sure others do too?
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Post by Nyan Kat on Sept 5, 2012 21:58:10 GMT -6
If Linnet was town, she will remain town, but have flipped mafia.
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Sept 5, 2012 23:07:22 GMT -6
" Although her face was now different, the identification in the body's pocket confirmed that it was indeed Linnet." I cannot think of a single thing that could mean other than her not really being the doppelganger. However, this does not say as to whether or not she actually was mafia. Since I'm pretty sure monstrman isn't messing with us about his actions for various reasons, I see two possibilities: 1. The mafioso doppelganger targets Squeege, is then busdrove, and kills the townie Linnet instead. As part of the doppelganger's ability, Linnet dies, her actual role and alignment are hidden, and she is revealed as a mafia doppelganger, and the real doppelganger takes Linnet's ability. 2. The mafioso doppelganger targets Squeege, is then busdrove, and kills the mafioso Linnet instead. As part of the doppelganger's ability, Linnet dies, her actual role (and perhaps alignment but it wouldn't matter since she already is mafia) is revealed as a mafia doppelganger, and the real doppelganger takes Linnet's ability. Personally I think it was #2 because her posts seemed scummy to me. But an important piece of info to know would be whether or not the alignment is changed. Nyan Kat, I do believe you said you are familiar with the role, so do you know?) WIth an initial game of 16, I think we had 10 townies, 5 mafia, and 1 independent. We have 11 alive. Depending on the state of linnet, we would either have 5 or 4 mafia left. If we have 5, a mislynch today would be pretty much an instant loss. So lets not do that... But it feels like it shouldn't be that hard, cuz we basically have like a 50/50 chance of getting it right, and we wouldn't be taking a stab in the dark. Since its getting nearer late game maybe we should start saying who we all think is mafia or at least who we think is town. And work from there? I mean i have a pretty confident idea of at least half of the remaining players. im sure others do too?
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Sept 5, 2012 23:07:55 GMT -6
GAH. I hit the PREVIEW button, not the POST button. >_<
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Sept 5, 2012 23:31:48 GMT -6
TML, I agree with you that Linnet was most definitely not actually the doppelganger for this reason that I just noticed. Although I think you already saw this and didn't mention it. (Unless I missed it). " Although her face was now different, the identification in the body's pocket confirmed that it was indeed Linnet." I cannot think of a single thing that could mean other than her not really being the doppelganger. However, this does not say as to whether or not she actually was mafia. Hmmm, I had missed that bit. I only picked up on the specific manor of the reveal, not the flavor text aside from that. I’m always very leery of flavor text as it’s impossible to know what parts of it are meant to be helpful and what parts of it will be inadvertent red herrings. However, I think it is a safe assumption then that Linnet probably wasn’t the Doppelganger. I will admit that I’d forgotten the detail of Monstrman swapping Squeege and Linnet. I think I even missed that yesterday in my mega-post, come to think of it. I was too focused on Linnet’s interaction with NPR (or lack thereof, as it turns out) to consider Monstrman’s extra interaction atop that. Though to be truthful, I’m thinking that figuring out whether Linnet was Town or Mafia is more of a moot point at this juncture. Though I think I’d love to ask everyone the question of whether or not you all think she was. That... seems to be too high an estimate for the Mafia. While I realize that having additional anti-Town teams in fact hurts the Mafia more than it hurts the Town (well, maybe), having 6 anti-Town out of 16 seems like there’s incredibly little room for error. In setup, one has to consider that every two Townies above and beyond the count of the Mafia (not counting an SK) yields one safe mislynch. If the SK killed randomly, it means that Town would be hit more frequently than Mafia, meaning that the number goes down slightly from there, even though I also realize it’s in the SK’s best interest to remove as many Mafia as he can earlier than later. Meaning that, in a 10-5-1 game, you’d only have one guaranteed safe mislynch, two only if the SK doesn’t hit Mafia the first two nights. That’s a narrow margin to skate by on. I’d wager that the Mafia are closer to 4 than 5... though I’m also completely unaware of how Erniewan sets up games, so maybe 10-vs-5 is more reasonable? I know I wouldn’t do that.
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Post by Hellfire on Sept 6, 2012 9:24:24 GMT -6
Though to be truthful, I’m thinking that figuring out whether Linnet was Town or Mafia is more of a moot point at this juncture. Though I think I’d love to ask everyone the question of whether or not you all think she was. I think it matters so that we have some kind of an idea of how safe we need to play. If a mislynch today means end-game, its better to be less aggressive, but making sure we're more confident that we're lynching a mafioso. So if we have 5 mafioso and Linnet is townie, we better make damn sure that the lynch is a mafioso. In response to your question, I thought Linnet was townie. I agree with the doppelganger changing her appearance theory and that's why she seemed mafia. Also, Ernie is (or at least when I played was) very good and spent a decent amount of time making sure that games were balanced. So that being said, with an independent, I'm guessing he has 4 mafioso. Based on those possiblities, we have 4 mafia vs. 7 townies remaining. Obviously, either of those could be wrong so we need to be a little vary of that.
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Post by Nyan Kat on Sept 6, 2012 15:13:36 GMT -6
So, when Linnet first flipped, impereld had really weird reasoning for not thinking she was mafia (too competent). With that in mind, I see a (really) small connection there. I could also see an imp-blra pair because that voting exchange (was that D3?) was just so unbelievably odd. Impereld more so than blrasmu, again because of his reasoning. (lack thereof?)
So I'm wondering who would be a better lynch: impereld or blrasmu?
Game Guy is also a little too null to be null for me, if that makes sense. Typically, but not always, if someone is that obstinate of a null read for me for this long, it means they're likely scum. That said, I don't actually have anything on him at present but I should probably do an iso.
I very much think that malick is town, and at this point I'm happy just to /barn Squeege's kira-town read. idk my thoughts are really disjointed haha.
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Post by Nyan Kat on Sept 7, 2012 13:11:08 GMT -6
meh. I really don't know what else we'd learn from lynching impereld today.
Vote: blrasmu[/color]
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robbiecon
Yellow Belt
[A1i:6][ss:The Beatles]
Posts: 259
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Post by robbiecon on Sept 7, 2012 15:38:36 GMT -6
I honestly think we only have three-four mafia. I'd definitively say it was three, but you normally see double abilities with a three person mafia team.
Anyway, I will Vote: blrasmu, I think he is the most likely to be mafia for now. Don't know what to say about impereld, but that's probably the next step.
The two inventors is kind of strange, but at least they weren't the same alignment. Kind of surprised Squeege flipped town, was expecting him to be mafia tbh, I thought he was starting to act scummy the last day.
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Post by Erniewan on Sept 7, 2012 19:31:57 GMT -6
Vote Count:Voted | # | Voters | blrasmu | 3 | Caleton, Kat, robbiecon |
No vote (8): malick, GameGuy, Hellfire, blrasmu, kirawillwin, impereld, TML, vgaddict With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 4 ends on Tuesday, September 11th @ 6:30 pm (CST).
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Post by Caleton on Sept 7, 2012 19:45:04 GMT -6
This is kinda redonkadonk. Its been like 3 days and we haven't even broken a page yet... robbie, i really doubt there would only be 3 mafia in a game with 16. but, maybe 5 was a little much. 4 makes sense i guess. To instigate discussion, ill just say the way i see it. Although I very much could be majorly wrong, and i feel i probably am. Most Town: caleton , nyan kat, malick Maybe Town: impereld, game guy, missing link Null: robbiecon maybe mafia: vgaddict, Hellfire more mafia: blrasmu, kirawillwin
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Post by kirawillwin on Sept 7, 2012 20:04:52 GMT -6
I understand kat and malik at the top, but why am I at the bottom, I'd like to hear your reasons for that, as far as Blras I'm pretty sure he is mafia at this point, he is the most logical for a lynch today, but I want us to talk more before i decide anything.
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Post by monstrman on Sept 7, 2012 20:07:44 GMT -6
That's a good plan. Everyone should make a trust list, so we know who everyone trusts and stuff. Also, if you can, give quotes and stuff so that we can understand -why- you trust that person.
Also blras is probs scum, that's about it from the re-read.
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Post by monstrman on Sept 7, 2012 21:09:24 GMT -6
Follow up question: Caleton, could you explain your reads on impereld, gameguy, hellfire, VG and blrasmu for me?
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Post by Caleton on Sept 8, 2012 0:53:52 GMT -6
I'll answer your question in greater detail tomorrow. right now I'm really tired. But yeah, also, be aware that I made a list a while ago and I've been updating it and moving stuff around through out the game. I kinda forget completely why its turned out the way it is, especially on some of those less active players. but yeah, more tomorrow.
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