The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Aug 29, 2012 22:04:01 GMT -6
I'm still suspicious of all these protective roles people are claiming, but it is possible that we just don't have a doctor. Stranger things have happened. Did I miss those? I mean, I saw a few people claim Armor roles; are those the "protective" roles that you're talking about? I usually think of protective roles as doctors, but I suppose these fit into the same bucket as well. Some could also be one-shot items too... though I can't say I know much for items, when it's all said and done. None of my predecessors deemed it necessary to grab any... and no one's had any reason to put any trust in me to send one yet, so I have no idea what's out there. But if there are protective items, I'd have to argue on grounds of fairness that it's a possibility that there isn't a doctor. At this point, it's just speculation though; I'm not immediately concerned if there is one or not. Hmm, I haven't heard of that role, though it is interesting. Has that role been used here before with some frequency? It sounds vaguely like a janitorial role, yet obviously an alignment was revealed along with it. How much trust do you put in the alignment flip?
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Post by Nyan Kat on Aug 29, 2012 22:08:48 GMT -6
I've seen it at least once.
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Aug 29, 2012 22:13:51 GMT -6
TML having the two flips so accurate in his reread is interesting. I wouldn't necessarily say "so accurate." I read extremely quickly (it was 11:30pm and later for me when I read), so I was getting vague impressions only. When I classify town -- as you'll remember from when I play -- I lay out five categories: Strong Town, Weak Town, Null, Weak Mafia, and Strong Mafia. Very few people were in either extreme category, so I don't know if "so accurate" is good terminology all in all. I do remember being surprised when everyone was saying Linnet was obvtown; I felt I missed something. Rereading through 17 pages of Mafia topic all at once is hell; I hate the task, so I almost put it off 'til today. It's less unexplained than you think. Though it is potentially inaccurate given the methodlogy. Caleton seems very eager to help. There's a leaderly charisma that his/her posts have made that seem to carry through some noble intentions. If I'm recalling the right person, I also seem to remember reading that Caleton hasn't played in a while? I don't know if that means he/she (can't be bothered to look up genders at this point BAW) is an expert or if that means he/she is rusty or still in top shape, but for someone that hasn't played in a while, there's a refreshing tone in the way he/she is playing that just cries out Town to me. It's because I consider you a friend or at least good acquaintance. And because you and I seem to work well with. It's part of the noted biases I get when I play. The more inclined I am to like another player, the easier it is for me to trust that person wholesale; in a game that encourages out and out lying, that trust is something that has to be accounted for. When you're Mafia, it takes especial effort to determine when you are because I'm willing to give you more benefit of the doubt. I do have you in my possible Town category, but whether or not it's an earnest belief or just a hunch crafted because you're awesome and I have fun playing Mafia with you, I'm not sure yet.
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Aug 29, 2012 22:18:27 GMT -6
^I think it was NPR, especially because malick said he watched NPR target me and NPR proved it. So either it's a REALLY planned out (and awful) mafia play, or malick is telling the truth. What bothers me is that the item I got simply gave 4 EP. I dunno, it just feels weird that suddenly the items go from 4 EP to stumpifyer? It's not sitting right. I'm with Kat in generally believing someone when there's an uncontested detective-like claim. Making bold, false claims about who did what and how will, if not immediately, generally bite someone in the butt on the next day at the very least. I have a random speculation about the nature of Malick's role, but the theory stems from a role that I created for a Mafia game that's not completed yet. Between that and not knowing entirely whether or not I'm even close to barking up the same tree, I feel that I want to keep my thoughts close hold for now.
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Aug 29, 2012 22:21:02 GMT -6
maybe the items increase in value closer to the end of the day, or are random? my item was also kinda crappy. (don't out your items, guys) Well, I think a more interesting thing to consider is that the items that have up until this point might not all be from the same conveyor belt. If we're looking at items as disparate as 4EP vs a stumpifier, one almost seems a rather run-of-the-mill-gets-produced-every-X-days sort of deal while the other seems more... calculated and crafted, as if it were created for a specific purpose. You know, like an inventor role.
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Aug 29, 2012 22:27:55 GMT -6
To answer your question Kat, I targeted Monstrman to protect him, not to stump him. The item I received was a hamburger that I can eat to replenish 5 EP. My only idea was how Monstrman got stumped was from a ninja, since Malick watched Monstrman, and only saw me. yeah, I saw that. but i dunno, i guess npr technically didn't lie. Although he heavily implied that he wasn't the one who stumped him. Assuming he did stump him, that seems pretty much like lying. I feel like I missed some part of an exchange here honestly. (Then again, I'm practically semi-disregarding a lot of recent history as well.) Caleton, what exactly did you "see" here? Are you talking about something that you know about NPR's actions here, or are you just saying you see some side of a discussion that you hadn't before? I want to make sure I'm not reading too much into things. ugggh I think this is turning out to be a complete dead end. Katty, that's a pretty quick turnabout from being super suspicious over NPR from Malick to practically disregarding it as nothing. Could you elaborate a little bit as to why you feel like this is a dead end now?
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Post by Nyan Kat on Aug 29, 2012 22:32:37 GMT -6
First off: I voted malick because he was being uncooperative. I don't in the least think he is mafia, but if he's not going to cooperate, why play?
At first, I thought monstrman was a stump, and that NPR tried to kill him but instead he turned into a stump. Then monstrman claimed bus driver and I realized the stumpification was likely the work of an item. Which led me to realize that the stumping probably did not come from scum for reasons I already gave. Bearing that in mind, now I dunno if we ought to pursue it or not.
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Aug 29, 2012 22:42:17 GMT -6
I suppose there's a thread of logic through there, though I'm not entirely so certain that it's a completely dismissable argument.
An item is an item when it boils down to it. Items aren't necessarily good or evil, and they rarely have restrictions about who can use it. If a stumpifier item somehow went to the Mafia, what's there to prevent the Mafia from killing AND stumpifying someone all in one go?
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Post by Nyan Kat on Aug 29, 2012 22:43:58 GMT -6
That would just be dumb, and like I said, monstrman would have been a horrible choice for a scum kill (and stumping)
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Post by NPR on Aug 29, 2012 23:01:36 GMT -6
Actually, using a 1-time stump ability on the bus driver is not a bad idea, since the bus driver can screw with the mafia. (See: Princess Bride Mafia)
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Post by Nyan Kat on Aug 29, 2012 23:18:56 GMT -6
AGAIN, if it's x-shot they're better off using it on something like the cop.
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Post by monstrman on Aug 29, 2012 23:48:17 GMT -6
^Actually... if I were mafia, I'd rather kill the cop than stump them. Same with the doc. That way, if on the offchance they -do- get some information, they won't be able to tell anyone. Assuming there was a detective on my team, I'd use the stump item on someone I hadn't detected yet.
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Post by monstrman on Aug 29, 2012 23:48:31 GMT -6
But again, I'm not convinced it -was- an item.
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impereld
Red Belt
[M:1500]
[ss:Standard]
Posts: 55
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Post by impereld on Aug 30, 2012 3:13:16 GMT -6
Taking into account that the mafia probably didn't know monstr's role, I'd guess they stumped him so he can't take actions or vote, but could still talk because of the amount of conversation that he stirred up on Day 1.
And yeah, Caleton was right about my reason for voting. I thought I had already said why I was voting for blarsmu, but I read back and I actually didn't. So, blarsmu, the reason I'm suspicious of you is the fact that you seem to direct attention away from yourself, instead of refuting statements. I get that you're playing calmly and mellow, but at least defend yourself instead of just pushing attention away.
Apart from that, I'm not getting good vibes from vgaddict, but there is absolutely no basis of reasoning for that yet. Also Squeege and TML I have as a big fat null, but so null it's kind of suspicious in itself.
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Post by softguitar on Aug 30, 2012 12:51:38 GMT -6
An item on the floor again! Where do these things come from?
Pick up the item by typing Get item.
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vgaddict
Yellow Belt
[ss:Standard]
Posts: 214
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Post by vgaddict on Aug 30, 2012 12:52:26 GMT -6
Get item.
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Post by Nyan Kat on Aug 30, 2012 13:23:23 GMT -6
oh, the things I miss when I actually try to pay attention in my anthropology class...
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Post by malick2037 on Aug 30, 2012 17:31:45 GMT -6
The items always appear when I'm not home or when I go to bed ;-;. FWMP (First world mafia problems)
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Post by monstrman on Aug 30, 2012 17:37:10 GMT -6
I've been thinking, and I don't buy it. Either it -was- an item that stumped me, in which case malick would have seen the person targetting me, or NPR is lying and stumped me himself. I say this because NPR says he didn't stump me using an item, and if it -were- an x-shot mafia stumpification, then it would be OP for it to -also- go through protections/watches/etc.
If it were an item, I can forsee no way for ernie to have predicted this and given scum the ability to use items through watches/protections/etc. And again, even if he had, op.
It just smells way too fishy for me.
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robbiecon
Yellow Belt
[A1i:6][ss:The Beatles]
Posts: 259
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Post by robbiecon on Aug 30, 2012 18:03:52 GMT -6
I do not believe that it was an item that stumped monstrman. Furthermore I do believe that it was indeed a member of the mafia that performed the stump. My thoughts are that we have a reasonably inactive mafia, and that they did not have enough EP to perform a kill, so instead went for a stump, as a reasonably acceptable and affordable alternative. It just seems really odd that the mafia would not have done anything in two nights.
I'm getting a good town vibe from The Missing Link btw, plenty of posts, addressing a number of issues, and a lot of what he says is making pretty good sense (of course I thought this about Linnet too, and we know what happened there). Still, it is very rare for mafia to be so analytical of the game, they simply point you discretely in the direction they want you to go, in order to pick off townies by lynch, and some more via the night kill (of which there has been none).
I considered that monstrman may have caused Linnet's death by use of his bus driver role, but then I remembered that he was stumped first, so I'm guessing he wouldn't be able to perform the action successfully then.
Also, I always miss out on items, even when I'm online, and the time suits me and my timezone. Bah humbug..
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Post by Hellfire on Aug 30, 2012 18:09:43 GMT -6
Ok so I didn't get this earlier, but I thought it was because I was tired or something. But I still don't get it so could someone explain it to me. Now, there's actually no way in hell NPR is scum! And here's why! If he was scum, and got the item, assuming no dets on the scum side, he wouldn't use that to stump monstrman because of the hangman game. Assuming dets on the scum side, he would save the item and use it on a power role, because bus driver sucks (yeah, you heard me!) Besides, a town NPR is definitely derp enough to 'vig' someone over a game of hangman. Why would be not use it on monstrman because of the hangman game? Someone had mentioned that he could be wordbomber. As of the Night, the mafia didn't know he was bus driver. So wouldn't he be a possible threat with a kill?
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Post by monstrman on Aug 30, 2012 19:19:05 GMT -6
^^Who said I was stumped first? I could have just as easily had my bus driver action go off. It really depends on how the mod runs things.
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Post by monstrman on Aug 30, 2012 19:19:46 GMT -6
Just because I was stumped first in the flavor means nothing
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Post by Caleton on Aug 30, 2012 21:55:12 GMT -6
TML: The confusion of my post arose from NPR posting a couple seconds before I did. I was referring to nyan kat's post directly before his in which she referenced two other posts. I was saying I saw those posts she referenced. btw, I'm a guy. xD And robbiecon, I also am thinking that TML is town, just cuz he's putting a lot of effort and deep thought and analysis into all his many posts, (and hes defending me as town ) However, it seems that he is also a very experienced player, and therefore id imagine he's also a pretty good mafioso, so im not sure how much i can trust him. And although im the first guy to bring up that the stump could be an item, I've been really starting to seriously doubt that, just cuz that feels really overpowered cuz ernie couldn't predict who got it. Well I'm sure it would take 30 EP so you could only use that for the night as opposed to other actions. But still. I had a bit more to say but I took a several hour break between catching up and posting due to distractions and forgot it all.
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Aug 30, 2012 23:11:14 GMT -6
I am never going to get an item if they all appear while I'm at work. X) So I've been on and off thinking about the game today whilst at work... and I really want to get to the bottom of this, so here goes. Anyway, I -was- scarlet witch, town busdriver. The long and short of it was I used my probability magic to make stuff that should happen to one person instead happen to another. Night one I didn't want to die so I bussed myself and MF.... Last night, however, ... I drove Squeege and Linnet. First off, question for you Monstr. Maybe this is a question of terminology and all that. You said you were a bus driver, but your description is worded in such a way where its vague at best and inexact at worst. It SOUNDS like you said you can make actions that target ONE of your targets target the OTHER. But that's more a redirector; a proper bus driver switches both targets, not just one. For clarification's sake, which are you? Either way: STMT #1: Monstr is a bus driver and gained EP based upon getting someone else to pick a word. FACT #2: Monstr played a Hangman game on D2. Now we go to Malick: Also just stating this I saw NPR target Monstrman last night. The action I use is still completely done unaware of me. I just choose who I want to target that night. STMT #3: Malick has a different ability each night and only picks the target. STMT #4: Malick saw NPR target Monstrman on N2. Provided these are true, this means one of two things. Either Malick's action was a tracker or a watcher action based upon who he chose. However, he clarified later on that he doesn't know what anyone else did, just what NPR did. This leads to the logical conclusion that Malick targeted NPR on N2. Malick, is this correct? CONCL #5: If #3 and #4, then Malick targeted NPR on N2 and was assigned a tracker ability. Which leads to NPR. Welp! Also, i did target monstrman last night, so i'm gonna claim. I am Ms. Marvel, the elite bodyguard. If someone tries to kill my target, i can either stop the attack all together, fail, kill the attacker, or die in my target's place. I targeted MF night 1 STMT #6: NPR is Ms. Marvel and is a bodyguard. STMT #7: NPR targeted Monstrman on N2. #7 and #4 coincide together, which provides increased evidence that this is likely the truth. The only way that this wouldn't be the case is if the two are both on the same team and anti-Town, at which point they could orchestrate a very crafty lie. However, a lie as big as this (a tracker ability plus admittedly targeting someone who was knocked out of the game vote-wise) is a huge risk, and that doesn't seem like it would add up to me. The much simpler and more logical conclusion is that this is the truth. CONCL #8: #4 and #7 are true. CONCL #9: Malick and NPR are not both anti-Town and on the same team. Given this, we can start to make educated guesses about the alignments of Malick and NPR. CONCL #10: If Malick is Town, then almost certainly #3 is true, which means that #5 is true. CONCL #11: If Malick is not Town, then NPR is likely Town (and at least not on the same anti-Town team). With that said, let's rewind a bit and really analyze NPR's role claim. There's an interesting twist in there which NPR said that... seems very weird to me. If someone tries to kill my target, i can either stop the attack all together, fail, kill the attacker, or die in my target's place. STMT #12: If #6 and #7, NPR claims that the specific results in what happens to an attacker of his target when his target dies has some variations. NPR, what's the deal with this? Do you get to decide what happens here? Or is it randomly chosen for you? I'm going to make the presumption that it's random given the lack of specificity in his actions. So let's run with that. If it's random, then there are four possibilities of what could have happened last night. Given this, then: * NPR obviously didn't stop the attack, so (a) is ruled out. * NPR could have failed. * NPR could have killed the attacker, but only if that attacker was Linnet. * NPR obviously didn't die on N2, so (d) is ruled out. This leaves three possibilities: CONCL #13: If #12, then either NPR's N2 ability failed, Linnet was the one who stumped Monstrman, or NPR is lying. Speaking of Linnet, it's time to look at her. But the most important thing is something that I can't believe I missed. Linnet was a doppelganger. Let's look at the role list. Doppelganger - You can replicate another player at night, killing them and stealing their role (but not team). The player will show up as a Doppelganger on death. I think it's possible that Linnet was made to look a doppleganger and somebody else now will look like what she was. Of course, it's possible that the doppleganger is actually dead, but if we just blindly believe that, it could come back to bite us in the collective ass. FACT #14: Upon reanalysis, we can't know for certain whether Linnet was Mafia. So what does that mean? CONCL #15: If Linnet was Mafia, then she hadn't used her Doppelganger kill yet. This likely means that NPR killed her in retaliation; this means that he is Town. CONCL #16: If Linnet isn't Mafia, then she was killed by the Mafia (unless the Doppelganger role was given to a 3rd party). What's interesting here is the possibly evoked by #16. If Linnet was the Mafia kill, then why did Monstrman get stumped? This means going back to #13. The second of the three possibilities can't be true in this case. CONCL #17: If #16, then NPR's ability failed, or NPR is lying. Which means we can hazard guesses about a good amount of NPR's alignment. One of the big lynchpins here is #15; it's a big what-if on Linnet. A lot of people believed that Linnet was Town going into D3; if that's the case, it doesn't mean that NPR is lying necessarily because his ability could have failed. But... I liken a probabilistic bodyguard to an counter-roleblocker (can roleblock, but can only successfully target roleblockers); they're both cruel roles to give to Townies. Especially when you have to also build up EP to use abilities. If guessing the targets of the Mafia were easy, the doctor would do it every night. So to have a role that is essentially a complete shot in the dark... and then to also have a percentage failure rate seems harsh. This might be counter-balanced by the fact that there's a percentage chance to also kill the killer in addition. However, we also have to consider the growing number of protective roles that are being revealed in this game. We've already got a revealed Percentage Armor, a claimed Armor, and now a Percentage Bodyguard. If NPR is telling the truth, then I'd hazard that there's no doctor in the game. Simultaneously, if there is a Doctor in the game, then NPR has less chance in telling the truth here. On the flip side, if you believe that either Malick or Linnet are Mafia, then that gives NPR a very limited chance of being Mafia. Right now, I trust Malick more than I do NPR. For me, the question boils down to Linnet. Though actually, I think that part might be answered too. Linnet was a Skrull, Doppelganger, Mafia Notice the word "a" in there. The claim here is that Linnet is just A Skrull, just one random member of a race. Which seems really funny to me. Out of all the Marvel comic archives of named characters, all that gets picked for a Mafiat is just one nameless face in an army. When there are so many legitimately named Skrulls there to be found?Something seems fishy here. Even so, this doesn't yield a conclusive proof. It is possible that both Linnet isn't actually Mafia... and that Malick is Town... and that NPR is Town... But this starts to become a big stretch. Vote: NPR
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Aug 30, 2012 23:13:40 GMT -6
That would just be dumb, and like I said, monstrman would have been a horrible choice for a scum kill (and stumping) AGAIN, if it's x-shot they're better off using it on something like the cop. Kat, you usually don't make assumptions like that that are really off base. What's giving here? Why really do you think Monstrman would make such a bad target for a Stumping ability?
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Aug 30, 2012 23:23:27 GMT -6
Apart from that, I'm not getting good vibes from vgaddict, but there is absolutely no basis of reasoning for that yet. Also Squeege and TML I have as a big fat null, but so null it's kind of suspicious in itself. Having played with VGA before, I'm not getting bad vibes just yet. Bad conclusions perhaps, but those aren't necessarily one and the same. Also, in truth, as far as I'm concerned, if you said you had a pretty strong opinion about who I was (given that I'm inheriting the baggage of two idled-out inactives), I'd find that most suspicious. I've been thinking, and I don't buy it. Either it -was- an item that stumped me, in which case malick would have seen the person targetting me, or NPR is lying and stumped me himself. I say this because NPR says he didn't stump me using an item, and if it -were- an x-shot mafia stumpification, then it would be OP for it to -also- go through protections/watches/etc. If it were an item, I can forsee no way for ernie to have predicted this and given scum the ability to use items through watches/protections/etc. And again, even if he had, op. It just smells way too fishy for me. Let's not be too hasty here. If I'm not mistaken, Malick said that he didn't know for certain that no one else targeted you. And if NPR is telling the truth, he claimed that there was a percentage chance that it'd still slip through. We don't have any sort of guarantees yet about this working the way you're claiming. Because let's be honest. The only other crazy interaction that could happen -- which is essentially what's going on -- is that there's a Ninja role in the game. And let's be clear -- a Ninja role in a game with items. And apparently lots of items. If we're lucky, a lot of those items aren't powerful, but it's still possible that there's some sort of Inventor that's causing some amount of these. Especially if this Stumpifier thing an item. Without a game with Inventors, that just doesn't seem like something you'd think up with a game with Ninjas... and then leave it up to random chance who got it. That... might be rather careless (or at least not well thought out) planning. If indeed it's an item that did it, I'd likely bank on the fact that someone other than the Mods conjured the item up.
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Post by monstrman on Aug 30, 2012 23:55:51 GMT -6
No it works both ways. I use my probability magic on two people and then what should target one of them instead targets the other. I mean, I claimed bus driver so I don't really see why I had to clarify the terminology, to be honest.
It would be one hell of a random chance for a ninja to get an item like that, plus, now that we've speculated this the mafia can very easily go through the list of who got an item and use it to narrow down whoever is this ninja. This is also why I don't like speculation, because it can inadvertently out power roles
Malick didn't know for certain that no one else targeted me, but he targeted me and only got the result of NPR. Meaning that either A) there is a ninja and by some stroke of luck they got this item or B) NPR is the only one that targeted me.
Occam's Razor and all, B seems more likely. Plus again, it seems that three, if not all, of the items are simply giving EP, so I'm really doubting the possibility of it actually being an item. TWO (if not three) of the items already claimed ONLY give EP, and again, 4 EP is such a weak item compared to a stumpifier. I think that if it were indeed an item, we'd see more than just EP items and a stumpifier. It really doesn't add up.
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The Missing Link
Yellow Belt
[M:1000]
"I just saved you from Ganon!"[ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 223
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Post by The Missing Link on Aug 31, 2012 0:22:00 GMT -6
I think I can concur with all of that.
And given that I had it the opposite way around -- that Malick had a watcher ability and not a tracker ability -- it makes it much less likely that whoever targeted you was someone other than NPR.
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blrasmu
Orange Belt
DOUBLE STAR POWER![A1i:5][ss:Starmen]
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Post by blrasmu on Aug 31, 2012 11:37:40 GMT -6
The more I think about, it seems more likely that NPR was the one who stumped monstr, and I'm betting it wasn't an item.
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