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Post by monstrman on Oct 19, 2012 13:59:44 GMT -6
It doesnt matter because im positive that robbie is mafia.
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Post by Erniewan on Oct 19, 2012 14:27:49 GMT -6
robbiecon: When can you use your Holy Ring or w/e and when does the person get the karma?
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robbiecon
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Post by robbiecon on Oct 19, 2012 14:50:39 GMT -6
The holy ring works at the start of every night, and the start of every day. +1 Karma in both cases.
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The Game Guy
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Post by The Game Guy on Oct 19, 2012 15:41:03 GMT -6
XX: I don't think that's really a point in his favor, considering the fact that we probably have an indie. If Monstr were the indie, then yeah of course he would want to eliminate Blra and lead the charge on it, it would make him seem more town aligned if he flipped scum.
Robbie: Why did you not give the ring to Ernie yesterday? I thought you said you could safely call him town then.
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Post by Erniewan on Oct 19, 2012 16:14:51 GMT -6
So when do you choose to use the ring? You could use it now and have the person see the effects tonight (N3)? If so, you could use it on GG and he could not kill you if it goes through, or you could use it on me and I could protect you (though that might be more of a waste).
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Post by robbiecon on Oct 19, 2012 16:19:18 GMT -6
It's an item you hold, and while you hold it, it grants you the extra Karma.
I can give it you, if you want, Erniewan.
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Post by monstrman on Oct 19, 2012 16:20:23 GMT -6
Gg, for all we know youre lying about having shot blrasmu and you are the indie. So i have a theory. Either xx is mafia creeper or town creeper. He cant be the indy. We lynch robbie. Robbie flips scum, gg shoots me. If i dont sie, and i dont flip indie, gg is the serial killer/indy whatever because it cant be robbie or xx. Pointless though, because i can prove that i can speak to the dead tonight.
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Post by The Game Guy on Oct 19, 2012 16:25:17 GMT -6
Way to avoid my question Robbie.
Actually Ernie, that's a pretty excellent idea. If I DO get that +1 Karma, I'll not shoot Robbie. In that case I could shoot Monstr I suppose.
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Post by robbiecon on Oct 19, 2012 17:04:31 GMT -6
Way to avoid my question Robbie. Actually Ernie, that's a pretty excellent idea. If I DO get that +1 Karma, I'll not shoot Robbie. In that case I could shoot Monstr I suppose. I don't see any question in the entirety of this thread aimed directly at me from you. And I've gone over the thread twice to check.
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Post by The Game Guy on Oct 19, 2012 17:16:06 GMT -6
Robbie: Why did you not give the ring to Ernie yesterday? I thought you said you could safely call him town then.
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Post by robbiecon on Oct 19, 2012 17:27:34 GMT -6
Ah, ok, my bad, I went through the first two pages of the thread.
And of course the answer is purely selfish, I wanted to raise my Karma enough to get my higher tier abilities.
Which kind of leads to the question, why was Erniewan able to kill at such a low Karma rating? Ok, I do believe that he is JoaT, but it seems as though different people are being given tougher tasks to reach their potential.
Also, I see Erniewan's question from Page 1, I think TML is reasonably trustworthy, although I trusted him in the Avengers Mafia for being highly engaged in the game, which I do not associate with mafia, and I know how that ended! As for XX Stone, well he was the hammer on softguitar, and could just as easily have stayed off that wagon, so definite townie points there, but not guaranteed townie. After all, I'm sure there's a reason he has a Best Mafioso award under his name!
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Post by monstrman on Oct 19, 2012 18:38:06 GMT -6
Why are we not lynching robbie today again? It's between him and xx for the remaining mafia, then between me and gg for the remaining indy, and i can prove i can speak to the dead. I feel like im talking to myself here.
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Post by monstrman on Oct 19, 2012 18:40:03 GMT -6
Okay, seriously? You guys are entertaining the idea that he's town? The only other -possible-suspicions mafiat is xx and why the hell would soft say she saw him target kat if he was mafia with her? That would literally be outing her fellow mafiat, which no one -ever- does. I mean seriously guys...
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Post by The Game Guy on Oct 19, 2012 19:19:22 GMT -6
Dude, you need to chill. I'll kill Robbie if he BSing about the ring. Also, you can't assume its between him and XX for the remaining mafiat, it could be that one of them is the indie! Why would assume that, Monstr?
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Post by Erniewan on Oct 19, 2012 19:32:57 GMT -6
Either XX or robbie could be mafia. Anyone could be indie. I just think a Holy Ring might be more useful to us than a dead tracker.
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Post by The Game Guy on Oct 19, 2012 19:40:23 GMT -6
Again, why is everyone coming to that conclusion? Couldn't anyone be mafia or indie? Is there something I'm missing here?
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Post by monstrman on Oct 19, 2012 20:15:53 GMT -6
Ernie is almost positively town. He killedwas ff last nighton and iti was one ofand three, eliminating him as a possibility altogether. Tml offers the only explanation for the lack of night kill night 1 which makes him very likely town. Of course, he could be the indy. It was proven by soft that xx targetted kat, therefore xx is either the tracker or the mafia tracker, but cannot be indy. Also, because soft outed that he targetted kat, i seriously doubt him to be the remaining mafia. Also, why are you so hastily jumping on the idea of shooting me when both xx and robbie are viable targets? You leaving out robbie really makes me feel like you want to leave him alive, because you are afraid he -is-was the mafiat, and as the indy you lose unless he also kills someone tonight. Of course, i could be wrong but your role is thus far unproven.
Honestly, robbie is the only logical conclusion of being a mafiat, and if there is an indy we can deal with that after we lynch them.
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Post by Erniewan on Oct 19, 2012 20:22:43 GMT -6
monstrman was going after blrasmu and soft. He's not mafia, but he could be indie. You have a kill ability. You probably wouldn't claim that if you were mafia, but it would fit if you were indie. And your gameplay hasn't been all that scummy anyways. TML blocked the N1 kill, he's not mafia. But indies have been known to have armor. That leaves XX Stone and Robbie as the possible mafia, Robbie for having a role possibly more useful for the mafia, and XX for not having useful results and the whole sketchy situation where the mafia knows his action. And yes, I am considering the possibility that softguitar outed a fellow mafiat's action as her own, just to be on the safe side. And I don't like how XX Stone is basically begging for his life. And I guess I could be considered for indie since I made a kill and caught mafia, but that'd be a stretch.
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Post by The Game Guy on Oct 19, 2012 20:30:08 GMT -6
I'm jumping on that conclusion because if we don't lynch Robbie today, we would probably lynch XX. At least, that's who I figured would be next to lynch. If Robbie isn't lying about his ring, then I would think that makes you next in line to be anti-town, Monstr. Maybe I could be jumping to conclusions, there is a reason I am putting my thoughts out instead of being secretive about stuff.
Also, OK y'all pretty thoroughly convinced me one of them has to be mafia, I just needed to know there was actual logic backing it up and it wasn't just an assumption.
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Post by The Game Guy on Oct 19, 2012 20:31:24 GMT -6
Oh yeah, I would rather like it if TML and XX posted their thoughts on the situation thus far.
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Post by monstrman on Oct 19, 2012 21:25:03 GMT -6
How does robbie having a ring make him any more likely town? From whaf it sounds like, his ability shouldnt require much karma, and any townsperson with an ability like that would almost surely give the ring away. Is it not equally likely for a mafia to have the same kind of ring? I would not put it past squeege to do that at all.
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Post by monstrman on Oct 19, 2012 21:25:43 GMT -6
And if you think im antitown, lyncg robbie today and shoot me tonight
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Post by The Missing Link on Oct 20, 2012 1:36:12 GMT -6
Okay... I'm going to try to catch up with the topic... but I'm doing so after having fallen asleep once already tonight due to being tired, so let's hope this actually makes sense by the time I'm done!! So one thing I haven't really had a chance to mention yet is that it's hugely surprising to have three kills yet to still have one of them unaccounted for. It's especially surprising given the fact that the unaccounted death is the actual Mafia death. Before I get into re-analyzing who I want to vote for, let me explain the bonus abilities that I haven't discussed yet. For the record, there's no way any of these could have actually been in play, but I'm tempted to theory-craft what possibly could have happened as a result of someone else's ability: My Third Ability: At 8 Karma, I had a choice of night actions. As a free action, I could charge up my armor. Then, in place of my protection ability, on the second night, I could release the electric charge, killing anyone who dared to target me. My Fourth Ability: At 10 Karma, I didn't need to charge my armor. In addition, there's a %chance that, when I was targeted for a kill, I would only go down to 6 Karma and not 0 Karma. Of particular note here is the third ability. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if someone out there had an interesting kicker ability -- especially one of the deceased -- that had a passive kill or something on it. Of course, both Katty and FF were both of the "Town XXX" type of roles, so I don't know if that's something they would have had or not. I am saying that it is conceivable, though not guaranteed, that there's no independent party out there, that the third kill is just a random coincidence based upon some triggered reaction. Stranger things have happened. --- So... Ernie could only be Mafia if he made this super daring sacrifice play, outed one of his own, and then hoped and prayed that this banked on him surviving the rest of the game as a "guaranteed Town". I will have to admit that, honestly, the thought of pursuing such a ludicrous strategy has crossed my mind more than once, but it's so daring and outrageous that I don't know if I could ever go all out on that. So honestly, I don't think I'm willing to violate the assumption that it's so crazy to go forward with. Plus, if there are three Mafiats as I suspect, reducing your side down to one on principle is... risky. Monstr was fairly adamant about blrasmu being Mafia back on D1, and I think this is pretty telling for his part. There was an almost surefire lynch set up on XX Stone, and he deviated from that direction... only to go after someone who ultimately proved to be Mafia. Très interesting. I think that lends a lot of credibility to him being Town, and I really do believe that it was him that was attacked on N1, though I have nothing to prove that. All this means, really, is that I have to decide amongst the remaining three. it can't be TML or ernie, and that leaves you me gg and robbie. I can prove my role tonight, gg can shoot you if robbie isn't mafia. If you don't die, he's lying. If you die and flip town, he's lying. Either way, if the game isn't over tomorrow we lynch gg and then it is. But robbie is the last mafiat. This is a very interesting plan. If we take for a moment that there's not an Independent in the picture and that we strictly have a 1v5 game right now, a lynch plus two kills will reduce us to 1v2, which means we get one last chance to win the game, even if both kills end up being Town in nature. The risky here runs if we do happen to have an Indy somewhere out there. Let's not forget that this is a viable possibility. In the best case, one of the two killers gets targeted at random, which still yields a 1v2 outcome. However, if we have a third party, and two Townies get killed during the night, we actually will have a 1v1v1 game. This essentially is going to yield a Town loss as only one of the anti-Town parties can be eliminated (that is... unless the Indy can have a co-win with the Town). Let's furthermore not overlook the fact that Monstr in fact could be said Indy. All I can safely assume about him is that he's not Mafia, not that he's Town, if we're being technical on the point. However, should this be true, then we've yet to explain the lack of a second kill on N1. I suppose it is possible that Kat, being the "Town Aid", could be a doctor-sort of ability and blocked the second kill. However, this seems a little crazy given that I'm effectively a one-effective-shot-doctor and that this also runs counter Monstr's claim... and if I were going with a claim, I wouldn't pick one that allowed me to become a MEDIUM SWAN that can talk with the dead. I would have picked a more likely story that still fit the parameters of what was known. So really, I don't think this is viable. But I wanted to play out the thought experiment regardless. Gg, for all we know youre lying about having shot blrasmu and you are the indie. So i have a theory. Either xx is mafia creeper or town creeper. He cant be the indy. We lynch robbie. Robbie flips scum, gg shoots me. If i dont sie, and i dont flip indie, gg is the serial killer/indy whatever because it cant be robbie or xx. Pointless though, because i can prove that i can speak to the dead tonight. I think it makes logical sense that XX isn't Indy. Well, potentially at least. Again, with the sheer different number of abilities that I have, I can't rule out anything. Thus far, XX Stone hasn't been able to prove his ability by revealing something else that we can confirm or prove, which is suckville; it'd have been nice to really write that one off. The only thing that would be sadness is if XX could attempt a kill AND a watch ability simultaneously... but this begins to sound more improbable if you go that way. Even I can only do one ability per night (minus the free action to charge my tertiary ability). The only way XX could be Indy is if somehow he killed the Mafiat... and the only reason he isn't bragging about it is that it runs counter to his claim. Which isn't completely outlandish, but at the same time, why claim an investigative ability? That also seems incredibly gutsy. Granted, it was very likely from the get go that this would be a short game, but there were still a few days left. If he wasn't really the investigative sort, could he have survived that long without being able to prove it? 8 Ball points to NO. So I'm willing to entertain the assumption. Way to avoid my question Robbie. Actually Ernie, that's a pretty excellent idea. If I DO get that +1 Karma, I'll not shoot Robbie. In that case I could shoot Monstr I suppose. See, this is interesting. Why would you suggest shooting Monstr? Ah, ok, my bad, I went through the first two pages of the thread. And of course the answer is purely selfish, I wanted to raise my Karma enough to get my higher tier abilities. Which kind of leads to the question, why was Erniewan able to kill at such a low Karma rating? Ok, I do believe that he is JoaT, but it seems as though different people are being given tougher tasks to reach their potential. Also, I see Erniewan's question from Page 1, I think TML is reasonably trustworthy, although I trusted him in the Avengers Mafia for being highly engaged in the game, which I do not associate with mafia, and I know how that ended! As for XX Stone, well he was the hammer on softguitar, and could just as easily have stayed off that wagon, so definite townie points there, but not guaranteed townie. After all, I'm sure there's a reason he has a Best Mafioso award under his name! See, there are many things I don't like about this post: There's a lack of Good Faith on trying to prove that he's Town by passing off the ring. We've already established that his upper tier abilities seem decidedly anti-Town, and yet... he's eager to get them. Robbie, what were you planning on doing with your upper-tier abilities? Who were your targets going to be? I want you to call your shots at this point since you're in the limelight here.And yet, despite the fact that he trusts Ernie, he suddenly calls him into doubt, as if Ernie couldn't have possibly claimed to do the things that he claimed he did. And this is rather strange to me. Because my only guess here is that, being a JoaT, most of his abilities are fairly equally priced (within some amount of variation), and that he should have been able to use maybe any two abilities back to back without going broke. Also, I think Robbiecon's rationale for trusting XX Stone seems... weird. Honestly, I don't treat the hammer vote against a Mafiat as a necessary Town action. Mafiats will hammer their own -- especially earlier than desired -- just to end the day and stop conversation. It's in fact in their benefit to do so. While this wasn't an early lynch, we also made very sure not to provide the opportunity to have an early lynch by not putting the vote to N-1 until pretty late in the day. Either or, it seems a rather flimsy rationale to give someone buckets of Townie points... especially when he backhands him with "Best Mafioso" in the next sentence. It was proven by soft that xx targetted kat, therefore xx is either the tracker or the mafia tracker, but cannot be indy. Also, because soft outed that he targetted kat, i seriously doubt him to be the remaining mafia. A good point. Still circumstantial as it doesn't offer hard proof; it could be Soft was trying to sway the Town to avoid a lynch, but at the same time, the other two candidates for the day (at least from D1) were XX Stone and Blras. Why call out one of your own to save yourself when everyone in radar is still Town? That does seem very illogical. This also leads me to believe that somehow there IS a Mafia Tracker/Watcher. Remember, Soft knew XX's target. Which means that she had some way to know it. This either means that XX is Mafia AND/OR that there is a Mafia Tracker/Watcher. It's the only two possible conclusions. So the judgment call that has to be made is what we think Soft would have done as Mafia. If XX is Mafia, would she have called out her own coy teammate's target? And if so, she was essentially confirming her partner's ability AND invalidating his very own roleclaim. This also seems heavily gutsy. Still, it's very possible, but XX being Mafia also makes him Soft's source of information. --- So at this point, I think I've got a reasonable suspicion on things. I think XX has the highest chance of being the Townie out of the last three. And Robbiecon still hasn't assuaged me that he's not Mafia. Vote: Robbiecon
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Post by The Game Guy on Oct 20, 2012 8:19:38 GMT -6
I'm jumping on that conclusion because if we don't lynch Robbie today, we would probably lynch XX. At least, that's who I figured would be next to lynch. If Robbie isn't lying about his ring, then I would think that makes you next in line to be anti-town, Monstr. Maybe I could be jumping to conclusions, there is a reason I am putting my thoughts out instead of being secretive about stuff.
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Post by Erniewan on Oct 20, 2012 9:01:02 GMT -6
Ok, fine, but let's make sure that robbiecon sends his Holy Ring to someone before he is lynched (which he would do if he were Town). I still think XX Stone should be killed tonight if robbie's not mafia though.
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Post by The Game Guy on Oct 20, 2012 9:34:59 GMT -6
So you are suggesting that we abstain today?
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Post by The Game Guy on Oct 20, 2012 9:39:25 GMT -6
I'm not sure that's a great idea considering that means we couldn't gain any Karma, and I still need 1 more Karma to make sure I have a 100% chance to kill my target.
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Post by Erniewan on Oct 20, 2012 10:42:45 GMT -6
No, I think we should lynch either robbiecon or XX Stone. Most people agree on robbie though.
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Post by The Missing Link on Oct 20, 2012 10:57:13 GMT -6
An XX Stone lynch is an interesting choice vis-à-vis the interaction with Softguitar.
Erniewan, what say you about that? If XX is Mafia, then Softguitar implicitly outed him when revealing the target that he didn't want to reveal on D2. How do you feel about that?
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Post by The Missing Link on Oct 20, 2012 11:26:17 GMT -6
XX, I would appreciate it if you could confirm that you lost Karma. Wait, what? I've still got all of mine. By the by, I haven't seen anyone discuss this yet in full (though maybe I missed it). This seems like a contradiction here.
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