Captain Planet
Shodan {1st degree}
[M:10200]
He's a hero![ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 2,620
Likes: 3
Favorite Mafia Role: flying octopus
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Post by Captain Planet on Jul 27, 2009 12:25:42 GMT -6
Really, if you want to lynch me because of a mistake then I don't know what to tell you.
It would seem that with the death of Defjam that there is a conspiracy, so as Jamis said, it most likely won't matter who we vote for. As long as we know there's a conspiracy, then we win.
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Post by Meow on Jul 27, 2009 12:35:51 GMT -6
Isn't the whole point of these games to get the antagonists to make a mistake, and then take advantage of that mistake?
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Post by Erniewan on Jul 27, 2009 13:08:03 GMT -6
Well, this isn't exactly mafia. The point of this game is to find out whether there is a conspiracy or not. His possible slip-up really doesn't reveal that. However, I do agree that it's looking like there's a conspiracy.
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Captain Planet
Shodan {1st degree}
[M:10200]
He's a hero![ss:District Court No. 76]
Posts: 2,620
Likes: 3
Favorite Mafia Role: flying octopus
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Post by Captain Planet on Jul 27, 2009 13:30:03 GMT -6
There is no way to take advantage of my mistake. The only thing that could happen would be me being lynched. Which wouldn't give an advantage. Especially since it's looking like there is a conspiracy.
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Post by Meow on Jul 27, 2009 15:11:11 GMT -6
Umm, if you were in a conspiracy, and you were voted off, that'd be an advantage.
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Post by jamis on Jul 27, 2009 16:01:07 GMT -6
The way I see it right now is either:
a) There is a conspiracy and MF is part of it. The conspiracy is too small to risk losing one of their members on the first day, so they killed Defjam instead hoping we would just think people didn't go through with voting. This might explain why several people are silent (I don't remember seeing M_F post today, even though he's posted elsewhere).
b) There is no conspiracy, but rather, a small group of people who decided to kill Defjam so that the rest of us would think there is a conspiracy (most likely common's C.O.N.S.P.I.R.A.C.Y.). This would explain why LMM said people tried to change their votes at the last minute.
c) There is a conspiracy and a small group of people who decided to kill Defjam. However, unknown to the small group, they invited a member of the actual conspiracy into the group. Then, the conspiracy voted to kill Defjam, so that the group (who is barely the majority of the innocents) would think their plan went through.
The only thing that doesn't make sense about B and C (aside from the idea that there are actually innocents who don't want everyone to win), is that common's C.O.N.S.P.I.R.A.C.Y. was against Erniewan, not Defjam. So that still doesn't explain why Defjam is dead. Unless they had the foresight to see that Erniewan dying might point them out. Or if a member of both the real conspiracy and the C.O.N.S.P.I.R.A.C.Y. convinced the rest of the C.O.N.S.P.I.R.A.C.Y. to not kill Erniewan, who is also a member of the conspiracy.
It seems, assuming there is an initial 50/50 chance of a conspiracy, that we have a 2 in 3 chance that there is a conspiracy.
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Post by Meow on Jul 27, 2009 16:55:54 GMT -6
I typed out a whole long reply to this, but my Wii lost internet connection right at the end, so this time I'll keep it brief.
a) Possible, but killing M_F would cover up their secret, and make the other member(s) very unlikely lynch candidates through random probability.
b) Possible, but requires a high amount of secrecy and trust.
c) You could erase the conspiracy section and it still makes sense:
One group tells everyone to vote for M_F, but then votes for Defjam to see if their votes count.
Getting rid of Defjam could be a way to get rid of Ernie's allies, as he knows her in real life.
Also, just because there are three possibilities, that doesn't make them all equally likely.
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Post by commonyoshi on Jul 27, 2009 21:22:23 GMT -6
I knew there was a conspiracy from the start. Our votes dont matter.
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Post by DrShlub on Jul 28, 2009 10:20:08 GMT -6
I wonder if there are any secret Third Party roles we haven't been told about...
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Post by LordManiMani on Jul 29, 2009 8:29:06 GMT -6
I'm making the deadline 3:00 pm this afternoon. I assume that things are still fairly active, just not here in the main topic (or that's what I'd like to believe, all cryptically-like). If folks want I could leave things open, but I'm not doing so unless there's enough response so y'know.
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Post by Hellfire on Jul 29, 2009 8:49:45 GMT -6
Sorry for being quite inactive guys. I've been a little busy of late but should be back to normal now. b) There is no conspiracy, but rather, a small group of people who decided to kill Defjam so that the rest of us would think there is a conspiracy (most likely common's C.O.N.S.P.I.R.A.C.Y.). This would explain why LMM said people tried to change their votes at the last minute. I think this would be a really dumb idea (for a small group to vote separately). Mainly because there is no way that you are going to ensure that you did not make a conspirator a part of the group while at the same time getting a majority of the town votes. Just one conspirator in such a group is enough to mess up everything. If this was why Defjam got killed, please do reveal it and the members of the group. Sticking to the same group for two straight days really doesn't help either because you don't learn much else. You need to start omitting one member a day and see how that changes things. Of course this is assuming there is said small group.
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Post by Erniewan on Jul 29, 2009 11:27:14 GMT -6
Yeah, that may be the case, Hellfire. If it is, those groups probably should work on finding their mole.
Also, we need to come up with a lynchee, and quick since the deadline's in <3 hours... If I could though, I'd like to request an extension.
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Post by DrShlub on Jul 29, 2009 11:29:50 GMT -6
We could try MF again, or choose someone else on the list
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Post by Hellfire on Jul 29, 2009 11:44:58 GMT -6
Yea, that's what I meant by removing one person at a time. That should help find the mole. And I think MF is a good idea again.
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Post by Worthy Protoplasm on Jul 29, 2009 11:51:20 GMT -6
Yeah, let's give it another shot.
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Post by jamis on Jul 29, 2009 12:07:12 GMT -6
Yeah, I think voting MF again is a good idea.
As for the whole group thing, there is a way to win, even if there's a conspiracy. The more I think about it, forming a group is a really good idea, but it involves so much deceit and trust of certain members, I'm not sure if anyone would actually attempt it fully.
Anyway, if it is the case, then I suggest the group kill the leader of it. If I were a conspirator, I would definitely start a group so that I'd know the majority of the town would vote the same way I did.
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Post by LordManiMani on Jul 29, 2009 15:28:06 GMT -6
It is now Night 2.
Given that this past deadline seems to have snuck up on us, I'm making this night longer than usual.
Night 2 will end Saturday, August 1st at 12:00pm. If all the votes are received before that time then I will start the new day early, but I will give at least several hours notice in case people need to change their votes (as I have not come up with a better solution for my vote-change policy yet).
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Post by LordManiMani on Aug 1, 2009 22:59:00 GMT -6
I'm sorry ladies and gentlemen, I must have either stuttered when I gave the night's deadline, or some of you were trying to determine if there was or was not a Conspiracy by attempting to force a non vote.
While it does say in the rules, I'm going to make it explicit here so as to avoid potential game-breaking: All players must vote. The deadline thus is really just to maintain activity.
The night 2 deadline is extended a further 24 hours from now until 12:00am, Monday August 3rd.
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Post by LordManiMani on Aug 3, 2009 7:51:14 GMT -6
That night the players cast their votes in secret, some by hand and some by telegraph relay.
The next morning the votes were counted and Miracle Fassad was executed by firing squad.
12 players remain. No further communication with Miracle Fassad is allowed.
It is now Day 3 this day will end Saturday, August 8th.
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Post by jamis on Aug 3, 2009 11:14:06 GMT -6
Well, it worked this time. I assume most everyone voted for MF. I did.
We still need to know why Defjam died. Anyone want to admit to secretly being in some group?
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Post by Meow on Aug 4, 2009 9:38:21 GMT -6
I don't think they will reveal themselves if there IS a secret group, because they will want us all to think there is just a conspiracy.
I actually voted for Common, because a certain someone told me to, although I'm not sure if I trust them anymore.
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Post by DrShlub on Aug 4, 2009 9:43:19 GMT -6
I voted Miracle Fassad
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Post by flint on Aug 4, 2009 10:10:19 GMT -6
Same
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Post by jamis on Aug 4, 2009 12:04:41 GMT -6
I don't think they will reveal themselves if there IS a secret group, because they will want us all to think there is just a conspiracy. Well, they would want us to think there is a group, which means they are keeping people not in the group alive and killing the group (this is also how you would tell if there was a conspirator in the group). Hopefully, someone who doesn't want to die for the sake of fooling everyone else, will admit to it and help the rest of us. Whoa, I just re-read your second paragraph. Someone told you to vote for common instead? That may have been how Defjam died (they sent out PMs to certain people telling them to vote for Defjam instead of MF). Will anyone confirm this, or did anyone receive a similar message? Also, I'm curious, if you don't mind telling, who told you to vote for common? This might help.
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Post by commonyoshi on Aug 4, 2009 14:24:08 GMT -6
Meow, explain who, or feel the icy cold grip of death around your neck.
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Post by Meow on Aug 4, 2009 14:32:46 GMT -6
Okay, I'm scared of Common, so I'll come clean.
I had a small group with a couple of other people (Including Ernie and Defjam), and it was Ernie who told me to vote for Common. I'm not sure if I trust him though, as it seems he's just making me go against everyone else.
Oh, I voted for Nintendo_1111 the first night, for the same reason.
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Post by Erniewan on Aug 4, 2009 15:05:03 GMT -6
Since Meow has outed our group anyways, I might as well tell what I was doing. Early on, I tried to form a coalition with Meow. He was acting REALLY suspicious. I immediately suspected him of being a conspirator. But I chose to keep him as a group member so I could keep tabs on him and so he wouldn't kill me. I've been telling him to vote for different people so that I could hopefully influence the conspiracy through him. So far it's been relatively ineffective, so either he's not a conspirator (which I have doubts about) or the conspiracy is large enough that moles are other places anyways and my "influence" doesn't matter anyways. I am even more suspicious of Meow because he doesn't understand my suspicions of him. He knows exactly why I think him to be a conspirator.
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Post by Hellfire on Aug 4, 2009 15:36:56 GMT -6
Ernie, how many people are in your little group? And why did yall kill Defjam if she was one of you?
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Post by jamis on Aug 4, 2009 15:42:10 GMT -6
I don't really like Erniewan's explanation, but I'll talk about that when I have time.
Anyway, they voted for Nintendo_1111 night 1 according to Meow. So Defjam's death is still a mystery.
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Post by Erniewan on Aug 4, 2009 15:54:41 GMT -6
You don't like it or you don't understand it?
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